Tourism is officially back. The world welcomed 1.4 billion international travellers in 2024, matching pre-pandemic levels and capping a dramatic recovery for one of the hardest-hit global sectors. But as the industry shifts from rebound to stability, the spotlight is turning to rising costs, weather shocks and geopolitical risk – with experts warning that growth in 2025 could test the limits of sustainable expansion.

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According to UN Tourism’s latest World Tourism Barometer, international tourist arrivals in 2024 rose 11% over the previous year — an additional 140 million travellers. Europe led the way with 747 million visitors, just edging past 2019 levels, while the Middle East stood out as the strongest performer relative to pre-COVID figures, up 32% from five years ago. Africa also posted a solid gain of 7% over 2019, while the Americas came close to full recovery at 97%.

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Asia and the Pacific are still catching up, with arrivals reaching 87% of 2019 levels by the end of 2024. But momentum is building, and the region could drive much of the growth expected in 2025. Overall, UN Tourism projects a 3–5% increase in international arrivals next year – a more modest pace after two years of sharp rebounds.

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And the money is flowing too. Tourism receipts reached $1.6 trillion in 2024, up 4% in real terms over pre-pandemic levels. Total exports from tourism, including passenger transport, hit a record $1.9 trillion. While the average tourist now spends less per trip than they did in 2020–2021, global earnings are higher than ever thanks to sheer volume and the return of big-spending source markets like India, the US, Germany and the UK.

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Some destinations posted jaw-dropping growth. Qatar more than doubled its pre-pandemic tourist arrivals (+137%), while El Salvador (+81%), Saudi Arabia (+69%), Albania (+80%), and Malta (+29%) all posted standout gains. On the earnings side, Kuwait (+232%), El Salvador (+206%) and Saudi Arabia (+148%) led the pack in local currency terms.

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But 2025 may not be a victory lap. The UN Tourism Confidence Index shows 64% of experts expect a better year ahead – but nearly half flagged rising transport and accommodation costs as a major threat. Inflation, oil prices, and currency volatility are also weighing on sentiment. Geopolitical risks, extreme weather and staff shortages round out the top five concerns.

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There’s also a growing sense that the sector is nearing a crossroads. While tourist numbers are recovering, so are crowds, emissions and infrastructure strains. The industry faces pressure to do more than just grow – it has to transform. That means more sustainable practices, smarter use of digital tools, and the promotion of lesser-known destinations over overtouristed hotspots.

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Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary-General of UN Tourism, summed it up: “This recalls our immense responsibility as a sector to accelerate transformation, placing people and planet at the centre of the development of tourism.”

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