The point is how much further do we want that number to go,

given the importance of this sector to the Maltese economy?

We have apparently now reached a milestone: 2023 was the first time that the arrivals broke through the 3,000,000 barrier. Tourism Minister Clayton Bartolo was thrilled with this, saying Malta had managed to “diversify markets, spread the age distribution of visitors, as well as widen the spectrum of why tourists visit Malta.”

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‎‎I say ‘apparently’ because the figure of 3,002,823 tourist arrivals announced by the Malta Tourism Authority was higher than the 2,975,670 reported by the National Statistics Office. But let us not quibble over those 27,153.

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The point is how much further do we want that number to go, given the importance of this sector to the Maltese economy? At what point do we pat ourselves on the back and say that if we manage to get that same number year after year, the cost of getting those tourists would be worth the benefits they bring?

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Sustainable tourism…. I guess it all depends on what you choose to understand by ‘sustainable’. It is a buzz word that is used way too often but there is no getting away from the fundamental dictionary definition: it is all about being able to maintain a certain rate or level and, if you take the Cambridge definition, in a way that causes little or no damage to the environment and is therefore able to continue for a long time.

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The key word there is ‘environment’. Does that only refer to the natural environment, or should it also encompass the social and cultural environment?

We have been trying to assess the impact of tourism and what is ‘sustainable’ for well over two decades. An academic paper commissioned by the Malta Tourist Authority in 2003 even then talked about supply constraints and the issue of extra hotel beds driving down profits of existing ones.

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There are numerous academic studies, some conducted by respected people within the Malta Tourism Authority itself, on how to calculate the economic benefits of spending. But let’s keep it simpler. There are certain trends that bear repeating.

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How many arrivals have we had? In 2003, we had 1,126,601 tourists; in 2013, we had 1,590,991, and in 2023… well, let us say 3,000,000.

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How much did they spend? In 2003, they spent Lm174.8 (€407 at that time) each; in 2013, they spent €910 but, last year, they only spent €898 – in spite of inflation.

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How long did they stay? In 2003, they spent 10.2 nights on average and in 2013, they spent 8.6 nights, while in 2023, they were here for 6.7 nights.

“The Tourism Minister argues that the solution is long-haul tourists, but will that be enough?”

The NSO methodology has changed over the years, but you still get the picture.
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How many beds were occupied out of the total? In 2013, it was 59.6%. By 2022, it had gone down to 53.2%. (The first three quarters of 2023 reported occupancy of 64.5%)

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The Tourism Minister argues that the solution is long-haul tourists, but will that be enough?

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There were 71,015 tourist beds available in 2023 but 25,000 more beds in the pipeline. A year or so ago, it was calculated that we would need 4.7 million tourists to fill them all.

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Even if we assume that the Q3/2023 occupancy figure of 64.5% was maintained till the end of the year, that may not be enough to make all that capital outlay worth it. It means that there will be too many beds and that hotels will have to drop the prices to fill as much as they can.

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Look, the numbers are supposed to tell a story. But the brutal reality is that at some point, there are simply going to be too many people in too small a place. Other destinations like Venice, Barcelona and Amsterdam are well aware of this. It would be wise to acknowledge that there may be a limit to our sustainability before we actually reach it!

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We cannot ignore the dozens of restaurants along the Strand in Gzira and pedestrian streets in Valletta taking up every piece of pavement. We cannot ignore that to get up to Paceville you have to do a samba through the touts trying to get you onto their sightseeing bus or Comino cruise.

We cannot ignore that the adverts desperately show Blue Lagoon as a paradise when the reality is festering pineapples, overpriced loungers and barely two square metres to swim in. We are blissfully unaware of traffic crawling through roads where cranes take up a lane.

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Indulge me for a moment: more numbers! All this has to be seen in the context of 150,000 more people living here. Even if it were possible to grow the number of tourists, we cannot create more buy-to-let property, and build more hotels, and fill more buses and shops and restaurants and planes and… well, you don’t need me to spell it out any further…

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Endlessly increasing the tourists is not possible without a backlash as the experiences shared over and over again on social media spiral downwards. And the experience is already far worse, whether we are taking about bus capacity, traffic, queues outside St John’s Co-Cathedral, blaring music, rubbish or sewage.

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All the fireworks in the world, all the film festivals in the world, all the sleek boutique hotels in the world, all the Ainsley series in the world cannot save us.

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Gleefully rubbing our hands over short-term profits even if the cost is long-term pain:is that what we are celebrating? In the end, the market will adjust and all the stakeholders will have to adjust accordingly. Arrival numbers are only one metric of this important sector, and we also have to look at seasonality, length of stay, per capita spending and segmentation…

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If we have a clear vision of where we want and need to be in five years’ time – then we need to start implementing a consistent strategy to reach that target as of today.