Artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape the U.S. job market in ways that are already being felt by young tech workers, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.

In a note published Monday, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote that the tech sector’s share of U.S. employment peaked in November 2022 — coinciding with the launch of ChatGPT — and has since declined, falling below its long-term trend. The most significant impact has been on early-career workers in technology, where unemployment among 20- to 30-year-olds has risen by nearly three percentage points since early 2024, quadruple the rise in the overall jobless rate.

“AI is starting to show up more clearly in the data,” Hatzius noted, pointing to generative AI’s growing role in displacing white-collar roles, particularly entry-level positions.

While tech sector job cuts represent a small share of the overall U.S. labor market, Goldman Sachs estimates that generative AI could eventually displace 6% to 7% of all American workers over the next decade. The firm projects that the peak unemployment impact will be contained to a manageable 0.5 percentage point, as other industries are expected to absorb many displaced workers.

The report adds to mounting concerns about the broader health of the U.S. labor market. Data released last Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below economists’ expectations of 106,000. Job growth figures for May and June were also revised sharply lower.

“Friday’s jobs numbers reinforced our view that U.S. growth is near stall speed — a pace below which the labor market weakens in a self-reinforcing fashion,” Hatzius wrote. Goldman Sachs estimates that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.2% in the first half of 2025 and anticipates a similarly sluggish pace in the second half.

Beyond AI, Goldman pointed to other headwinds weighing on economic activity, particularly the impact of President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs. Hatzius warned that tariffs are likely to suppress consumer spending in the months ahead as higher prices filter through to households.

The latest analysis adds to warnings from tech leaders, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who recently predicted that AI could eliminate up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years.