SpaceX's stock price plummeted by as much as 10% on Monday, marking its third consecutive session of losses. The decline has brought the company's valuation down to around $165, roughly 27% below its all-time high of $225.64.
The immediate trigger for this week's downturn was news that SpaceX is preparing a massive bond sale, expected to total at least $20 billion. This move has sparked concerns about the company's financial health and its ability to manage its debt. However, it's worth noting that the bond sale is also intended to fund the company's AI ambitions.
One of the main reasons for SpaceX's volatility is its razor-thin float. Only around 4-5% of the company's shares are free to trade, with the rest locked up due to insider ownership or other restrictions. This limited supply has fueled both the stock's explosive rises and falls, making it prone to sharp price movements.
Despite the recent decline, analysts argue that SpaceX's underlying business remains strong. The company's Starlink satellite internet service continues to grow, with over 10 million subscribers and a revenue of $11.4 billion in 2025. The launch business is also setting records, with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin.
However, the stock's high valuation and thin float have raised concerns among investors. Even after the pullback, SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales multiple north of 90x, significantly higher than the S&P 500's ~3.7x. This has led some analysts to warn that the stock is trading on hopes rather than fundamentals.
Lockup expiration fears are also adding to the pressure. The first insider selling windows open around late July and August, which could put additional supply into the market and further drive down prices. Elon Musk's stake in the company remains locked until June 2027, but this will eventually become a concern for investors.
The contrast between SpaceX's volatility and the crypto market's relative calm is striking. While SPCX swings double digits in a single session, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are absorbing the same hawkish-Fed macro backdrop with relative stability.
For long-term investors, a sharp pullback in a high-conviction name can often be an opportunity to buy at a discount. If your thesis on SpaceX's underlying business hasn't changed, a lower price means you're buying the same company for less. The fundamentals are intact, and mechanical demand is coming in the form of expected Nasdaq-100 inclusion in early July.
To take advantage of this dip, investors can use dollar-cost averaging to smooth out volatility. Buying in tranches as the stock dips allows you to build a position at a better average price while sidestepping the impossible task of perfect timing. Volatility cuts both ways, and sharp recoveries can happen just as fast as the falls.
However, it's essential to remember that dip-buying is not risk-free. SpaceX remains expensive on any traditional metric, and lockup expirations later in 2026 could add supply. The point isn't to catch a falling knife – it's to accumulate a quality asset at a discount if you believe in the long-term story.
For those looking to buy into the dip, XTB is one of the most accessible ways to do so. The platform offers real SpaceX shares, not synthetic exposure, giving investors genuine ownership and exposure to the company. With a beginner-friendly app and web platform, competitive commission structure, and low transparent costs, it's an ideal choice for those looking to build a position in SPCX.
