Ryanair has cut its passenger target for the current financial year, blaming elevated jet fuel costs for a planned pullback on winter flying.

The airline now expects to carry around 214 million passengers in FY27, down from a previous target of 216 million. The reduction is concentrated on the November to March period, when Ryanair intends to limit its exposure to jet fuel currently trading at around $140 per barrel. The airline has already hedged roughly 80% of its full-year fuel requirements at approximately $67 per barrel, which makes buying additional fuel at current market prices a costly proposition. The cutback is estimated to reduce winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million.

The update makes clear that summer operations are not affected. Passenger numbers between April and October are still forecast to rise by more than 5%, from 138 million to around 145 million. Ryanair did caution, however, that if fuel prices stay elevated into summer 2027, European short-haul fares could rise materially as airlines pass higher operating costs on to travellers.

On the traffic front, Ryanair carried 22.2 million passengers in August, a 6% increase on the same month last year, operating more than 120,500 flights over the period.

The logic behind the winter move is fairly straightforward. With the bulk of its fuel already locked in at a far lower price, expanding the winter schedule would mean buying additional fuel at today’s much steeper rates. Trimming capacity during the seasonally quieter months limits that exposure without touching the stronger summer numbers.

Whether fuel prices ease before the winter timetable beds in will determine how much of the hedging benefit Ryanair ultimately realises. For now, the airline appears content to protect its margins rather than chase passenger volume through a costly period.