Anthropic is preparing to tell prospective investors that its total addressable market could exceed $30 trillion, a figure that would surpass even SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion estimate and stretch further than most conventional frameworks for sizing a technology business.
The Claude developer is basing the estimate on the aggregate value of all work that AI models could eventually perform across the global economy. That is a deliberately expansive methodology, extending well beyond traditional software and cloud-services revenues. For context, the figure would exceed United States annual GDP, which currently sits at roughly $32 trillion, and is more than twelve times the combined revenues of the 191 technology companies in the S&P 1500, which together generated approximately $2.4 trillion last year.
Anthropic is also targeting a valuation of around $2 trillion and hopes to raise up to $100 billion through the offering. Both figures would surpass records set by SpaceX’s listing. The company could go public as early as September or early October, pending the release of formal financial documents in the coming weeks.
The commercial backdrop gives the ambition some substance. Anthropic’s second-quarter revenue is reported to have exceeded $11.5 billion, representing sharp year-on-year growth. Annualised revenue had reached approximately $65 billion by late July, up from around $47 billion in May. Internal projections, which remain subject to revision before any official prospectus is published, point to revenues of between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028.
The scale of the TAM figure will nonetheless attract scrutiny. When SpaceX presented its own $28.5 trillion market estimate earlier this year, New York University finance professor Aswath Damodaran indicated that the company’s projections were approaching or exceeding the limits of reasonable valuation assumptions. With Anthropic now going further still, that debate is likely to intensify.
The core question for investors is not simply the theoretical ceiling of what AI could one day accomplish. It is whether Anthropic can convert rapid revenue growth into sustainable profitability while keeping pace with the considerable computing, infrastructure and research costs that underpin its models.
