Zohran Mamdani leads prediction-market odds to be named TIME’s 2026 Person of the Year, according to figures shared by forecasting platform Kalshi on 25th July 2026. The New York City mayor sits ahead of Pope Leo XIV and Donald Trump in the current rankings.

Kalshi noted that Mamdani has remained in the national spotlight since taking office as mayor.

Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to trade on the probability of real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting the crowd’s collective expectation of whether a given event will occur. A lead in those odds signals that the market currently considers Mamdani the most likely recipient of the accolade, though the ranking can shift as new developments emerge.

TIME’s Person of the Year is awarded annually to the individual judged to have had the greatest influence on events over the preceding twelve months. Past recipients include heads of state, activists and business figures. The 2026 edition remains unannounced.

The Kalshi post drew notable engagement, receiving more than 2,200 likes and 477 comments, suggesting the ranking has caught the attention of a politically engaged audience well beyond dedicated forecasting circles.

Whether Mamdani ultimately secures the title will depend on how his tenure develops over the remainder of the year, but for now the prediction market has placed him firmly at the front of the field.