Donald Trump Jr is set for a significant financial gain from his involvement with Kalshi, a prediction market platform that has surged in value. The company granted him a stake worth around $300,000 when he joined as a strategic adviser in early 2025, at a time when the private firm was valued at under $2bn. This valuation is less than a tenth of its current worth, which stands at over $22bn following a recent funding round.

Kalshi’s value has grown rapidly, with the company issuing fresh equity over the past 18 months. However, Trump Jr’s stake has been diluted due to this expansion, but he still holds onto a sizeable paper gain. The fast-growing prediction market allows traders to bet on binary outcomes, including sports events and even when President Donald Trump will buy part of Greenland.

Kalshi has benefited from a light-touch regulatory environment under the Trump administration, which has enabled it to grow into a major player in the industry. The company is currently in talks to raise funds at a valuation of around $40bn this quarter. Trump Jr’s stake in Kalshi is just one example of his family’s growing financial ties to various businesses that stand to gain from the current administration’s policy agenda.

As a strategic adviser, Trump Jr has been involved with several other companies, including Mixed Martial Arts and online weapons retailer GrabAGun. His brother Eric Trump has also contributed to a $1bn war chest built by a New York brokerage that has invested in drone manufacturers and crypto companies. US regulatory bodies headed by the president’s appointees have adopted a hands-off approach to Kalshi and its rival Polymarket, allowing them to grow rapidly with billions of dollars in trading volume each month.

Kalshi declined to comment on Trump Jr’s stake, while spokespeople for him did not respond to requests for comment. The company has faced lawsuits from several US states over sports bets dominating the platform, a trend that has also triggered criticism from prominent figures. President Trump himself recently branded several critics of the platforms as “scum” in a post on social media.

Kalshi’s rapid growth and Trump Jr’s stake have raised questions about the influence of the president’s family on regulatory bodies. The company’s valuation is set to reach $40bn this quarter, with Trump Jr’s paper gain estimated to be substantial despite his diluted stake. As the prediction market continues to expand, it remains to be seen how Kalshi will navigate the complex regulatory landscape and maintain its growth trajectory.

The FT reported that Kalshi has benefited from a light-touch regulatory environment under the Trump administration, which has enabled it to grow into a major player in the industry. The company’s valuation is set to reach $40bn this quarter, with Trump Jr’s paper gain estimated to be substantial despite his diluted stake. As the prediction market continues to expand, it remains to be seen how Kalshi will navigate the complex regulatory landscape and maintain its growth trajectory.

The CFTC dropped its appeal against Kalshi in May 2025, following a case where the regulator had tried to halt the company’s event contracts on congressional elections. The Department of Justice also ended a probe into whether Polymarket had been illegally accepting bets from Americans two months later.