Malta’s population could shrink by more than half before the end of this century if net migration were to stop entirely after 2025, a new Central Bank study has warned, placing the island’s demographic future almost entirely in the hands of continued inward movement.

The analysis, EUROPOP25: Malta’s Revised Population Outlook, produced by Senior Economist Lynn Cumbo and Economist Liam Micallef, examines Eurostat’s latest long-term population projections and measures them against earlier 2023 estimates. Under the starkest scenario modelled, a complete halt to migration would see Malta’s population fall from 574,250 in 2025 to around 530,000 by mid-century, then collapse to roughly 252,000 by 2100. That trajectory would also push the old-age dependency ratio to 104%, meaning residents aged 65 and over would outnumber those of working age.

Malta’s population is still expected to peak at around 766,000 in 2073 before easing back to approximately 724,000 by the end of the century, a 21% increase on current levels but a meaningful downgrade on what Eurostat’s 2023 exercise had anticipated. The revision stems chiefly from a reassessment of future migration flows, with the baseline now assuming roughly 32,000 fewer cumulative net migrants between 2026 and 2050.

Annual net migration is projected to taper from around 10,600 people in 2025 to 3,450 by 2100 and average annual population growth between 2025 and 2050 is now forecast at 0.9%, down from 1.2% in the previous round.

Compounding the pressure is Malta’s fertility rate. The study places it at 1.01 children per woman in 2025, the lowest among EU member states and below the bloc’s average of 1.31. That figure is itself down from the 1.15 assumed in earlier modelling and the smaller cohorts it produces are expected to subtract around 16,730 people from the population by 2050.

On the other side of the ledger, annual deaths are projected to more than double, rising from roughly 4,300 today to around 10,000 by 2100 as the population ages. A scenario involving 33% higher non-EU immigration would, by contrast, push Malta’s population to a peak of just over 955,000 in 2081, underlining precisely how sensitive the island’s long-term outlook remains to that single variable.