China’s carbon dioxide emissions have fallen for the first time even as its power consumption has increased — a moment that analysts say could mark the country’s long-awaited peak in emissions.

According to new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), China’s CO₂ emissions dropped by 1% over the past 12 months, with a sharper fall of 1.6% recorded in the first quarter of 2025 alone. Crucially, this drop came not during a slowdown or lockdown, but while energy demand continued to rise — suggesting the country’s massive investments in renewables are beginning to displace fossil fuels at scale.

“This fall has a much better chance of being sustained,” said CREA’s Lauri Myllivirta, who authored the analysis published in Carbon Brief. Previous declines, such as those during COVID lockdowns in 2022, were temporary blips linked to economic disruption. This time, it’s different.

Driving the trend is China’s record-breaking rollout of solar, wind and nuclear power. The shift is also being helped along by a broader economic transition away from carbon-intensive industries like steel and cement, as well as surging electric vehicle adoption, which is cutting into oil demand.

If these patterns hold, China could achieve peak emissions well ahead of its 2030 target — a development that would mark a major milestone in the global effort to curb climate change. It would also position China to play a stronger role in climate diplomacy ahead of COP30 in Brazil later this year.

Still, it’s far from a done deal.

China still needs to add hundreds of gigawatts of clean energy capacity every year just to keep up with demand, especially with its aim of becoming the global AI superpower.

For now, the fall in emissions is a promising signal. Whether it marks a turning point or just another pause on the curve remains to be seen.