Crude oil prices plummeted to below $70 a barrel for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, erasing nearly all gains made since the Middle East conflict escalated. This decline comes as growing confidence in a lasting US-Iran peace agreement improves the supply outlook.

More tankers are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz with their tracking signals turned on, suggesting oil exports from the Persian Gulf region may soon resume at pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabian tankers have begun heading towards the Ras Tanura terminal to restart exports for the first time since March, while a temporary US waiver permitting purchases of already-loaded Iranian oil is expected to further boost supply.

The improved supply outlook has led market attention to shift towards an anticipated 2026 global supply surplus. This development has prompted Iraq's energy minister to threaten that his country cannot afford to continue producing at current levels if it is not allowed to increase its output, highlighting the growing tensions within the oil-producing cartel as countries seek to protect their interests in a rapidly changing market.

US stockpiles are currently below operational requirements at roughly 19 million barrels. Despite this drop, crude oil prices remain 6.55% higher than a year ago. Over the past month, prices have fallen by 25.96%, but market analysts expect them to recover somewhat in the coming months.

Looking ahead, Trading Economics' global macro models and analysts' expectations suggest that crude oil will trade at $77.70 per barrel by the end of this quarter. In 12 months' time, it is estimated to reach $91.38 per barrel. These predictions reflect the current market sentiment that prices will recover somewhat in the coming months as supply and demand dynamics continue to evolve.