US inflation dropped to 2.3% in April — the same month Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs — but economists say the full impact of the trade measures is still to come.

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The figure, published Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, came in slightly below March’s 2.4% and underperformed analyst forecasts. While the dip gives President Trump a fresh talking point in his campaign to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, most economists believe any inflationary effects from the tariffs won’t show up immediately.

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On April 2, Trump announced broad new import duties — including a blanket 10% minimum tariff and a 145% levy on Chinese goods. While some of the measures have since been softened, the administration’s trade stance remains aggressively protectionist.

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So far, the data has yet to capture the fallout. Core inflation — which strips out food and energy prices — held steady at 2.8% in April, suggesting underlying pressures remain. The Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, last registered at 2.3% in March, still above the central bank’s 2% target.

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Despite this, Trump has continued to call for immediate rate cuts, complaining last week that dealing with Fed Chair Jay Powell is like “talking to a wall.” The Fed has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5% for six months, insisting more evidence is needed before any cuts are considered.

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Markets responded modestly to the CPI report. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Treasury yields were broadly stable.

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Economists are warning against reading too much into April’s figures. “Tariffs don’t hit all at once,” one analyst told MeetInc. “You’re likely to see the real price impact show up later this summer as supply chains adjust and consumer prices catch up.”

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Trump’s tariffs have already reshaped parts of the global economy, with companies like Temu and Shein shifting logistics strategies and e-commerce giants weighing how to respond. But for now, inflation is heading in the right direction — even if it’s not clear for how long.

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The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for June, where officials are expected to keep rates on hold while closely monitoring the next wave of price data. Whether April’s dip marks a turning point or a temporary blip remains the central question.

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